Indonesia prepares to carry out B40 in January

In that case, costs might rally 10%-15% in Jan-March, Mielke says

B40 will need additional 3 mln lots feedstock, GAPKI says

Malaysia palm oil criteria at highest given that mid-2022

India might withdraw import tax trek amidst inflation, Mistry says

(Adds analyst remarks, palm oil standard price)

By Bernadette Christina

NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil output is anticipated to recuperate in 2025 after an expected drop this year, but prices are expected to remain elevated due to planned expansion of the country's biodiesel mandate, market analysts said.

The palm oil criteria price in Malaysia has risen more than 35% this year, lifted by sluggish output and Indonesia's plan to increase the obligatory domestic biodiesel mix to 40% in January from 35% now in an effort to lower fuel imports.

Palm oil output next year in top manufacturer Indonesia is expected to recuperate by 1.5 million metric loads compared with an estimated drop of simply over a million heaps this year, Julian McGill, managing director at Glenauk Economics, told the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference on Friday.

Thomas Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research firm Oil World, stated he expects Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by as much as 2 million loads next year after a 2.5 million load drop in 2024.

While Indonesia's output is forecast to enhance, supply from elsewhere and of other vegetable oils is seen tightening up.

Palm oil output in neighbouring Malaysia is expected to dip a little next year after increasing by an estimated 1 million heaps in 2024.

"We would need a healing in palm in 2025 due to the fact that combined exports of soya, sunflower and rapeseed oils are decreasing," Mielke said.

'FRIGHTENING' PRICE SURGE

The cost rise in palm oil in the past seven weeks has been "frightening" for purchasers, Mielke stated, adding that it would rally by 10%-15% in January-March if Indonesia implements the so-called B40 policy.

The Indonesia Palm Oil Association stated extra feedstock of around 3 million lots will be needed for B40 execution, wearing down export supply.

The present palm oil premium has actually already caused palm to lose market share against other oils, Mielke added.

Malaysian palm oil costs are seen trading at around $950 to $1,050 per metric lot in 2025, McGill of Glenauk estimated.

Benchmark Malaysian palm oil touched 5,104 ringgit ($1,165.30) on Friday, the greatest because mid-2022.

"Sentiment right now is red-hot and incredibly bullish, we have to take care," stated Dorab Mistry, director at Indian consumer items business Godrej International.

He forecast the Malaysian price around 5,000 ringgit and above until June 2025.

Mielke and Mistry advised Indonesia to

think about delaying

B40 application on concern about its effect on food customers.

Meanwhile, Mistry anticipated leading palm oil importer India to withdraw its

import duty walking

imposed from September after elections in the state of Maharashtra in November. ($1 = 4.3800 ringgit) (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Fransiska Nangoy